Shaping and leading the future
By Datuk Dr Ibrahim Ahmad Bajunid | iabaiw@yahoo.com
Writer is a deputy vice-chancellor, INTI Laureate International University
THERE have always been futurists in society. There are also the
nostalgists and revisionists who long for the recreation of some bygone
real or imagined glorious pasts of their cultures.
In contemporary civilisation, which emphasises scientific evidence,
scholars and researchers no longer really compete with soothsayers but
with themselves. Divining the future is about preparation for the future
or shaping the future itself. Visioning the future is the craft of
gathering information, learning lessons, pinpointing future trends and
making solid predictions.
Joel Arthur Barker wrote on Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future. He trains leaders regarding the power of vision and paradigm shifts. He has been to Malaysia several times.
In one of his talks, he invited leaders to understand the four verge relationships for leading strategically in the future, as follows:
ENTER virgin territory where there are no competitors;
PARTNER with elements in new territory and compete over there;
PARTNER with elements in new territory to bring back advantages to use in your own environment; and,
IMPROVE elements in the new territory with your technology and ideas.
He taught the power of vision, before the book by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy, captured the imagination of leaders.
Powerful ideas are always around: researchers, scholars and policymakers must seize the ideas and act strategically to make a difference.
In the 1980s, futurists guided policymakers to make sense of the future. Pre-eminent among them were Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener, who published The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. The document with contributions from members of the Hudson Institute included a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century".
Alvin Toffler was famous for his books, Third Wave, Power shift, and Future Shock. John Naisbitt, the prescient futurist was acclaimed for his books High Tech High Touch, Megatrends (1982) and Megatrends 2000 (1990), and Mind Set!.
Naisbitt analysed the long-term futuristic trends of American society, both chronologically and globally, with implications on other societies. Naisbitt noted that the "most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding The trends identified were:
BECOMING an information society after having been an industrial one;
FROM technology being forced into use, to technology being pulled into use where it is appealing to people;
FROM a predominantly national economy to one in the global marketplace;
FROM short-term to long-term perspectives;
FROM centralisation to decentralisation;
FROM getting help through institutions like government to self-help;
FROM representative to participative democracy;
FROM hierarchies to networking;
FROM a northeastern bias to a southwestern one; and,
FROM seeing things as "either/or" to having more choices.
In 1991, Stan Davis and Bill Davidson wrote Vision 2020. He then wrote Future Perfect, and Blur: The Speed of Change.
In the midst of the intellectual fervour regarding the future, Malaysia's Vision 2020 was launched on Feb 28, 1991. The world is already in the second decade of the third millennium. The future which just happened, the future around the corner, and, the far future are all in the imagination and planning of man. The year 2020 is six years around the corner.
All the transformation plans, national development plans and blueprints are aimed at achieving Vision 2020. Has Vision 2020 prepared Malaysia for the uncertain future and with Vision 2020, is the future being shaped, based on the insight and real indicators of progress?
Notwithstanding the celebration of the insights of economists, a large number of mankind still refers to astrologers, mystics, fortune-tellers, psychics and Nostradamus-like priests to give them guidance to their personal futures or the prediction of the last three minutes of the world.
Economists look for past trends to predict future economic events. Historians describe history as lessons from the past for leading the future. In an age of unreason and uncertainties without historic precedent, new models of riding future waves and shaping the future have to be sought. In this respect, we need new knowledge, new mindset, modes of thinking and new visionaries.
Jerry Allan, teacher and architect, observed that "most of the big ideas of the 21st century will be combinations of single ideas from the 20th century". What are the ideas from the 20th century that we bring creatively to the 21st century? In addition, what are the significant ideas from the future that we bring back to understand our past?
iabaiw@yahoo.com
nst Friday 27 December,2013.
Joel Arthur Barker wrote on Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future. He trains leaders regarding the power of vision and paradigm shifts. He has been to Malaysia several times.
In one of his talks, he invited leaders to understand the four verge relationships for leading strategically in the future, as follows:
ENTER virgin territory where there are no competitors;
PARTNER with elements in new territory and compete over there;
PARTNER with elements in new territory to bring back advantages to use in your own environment; and,
IMPROVE elements in the new territory with your technology and ideas.
He taught the power of vision, before the book by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, Blue Ocean Strategy, captured the imagination of leaders.
Powerful ideas are always around: researchers, scholars and policymakers must seize the ideas and act strategically to make a difference.
In the 1980s, futurists guided policymakers to make sense of the future. Pre-eminent among them were Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener, who published The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. The document with contributions from members of the Hudson Institute included a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century".
Alvin Toffler was famous for his books, Third Wave, Power shift, and Future Shock. John Naisbitt, the prescient futurist was acclaimed for his books High Tech High Touch, Megatrends (1982) and Megatrends 2000 (1990), and Mind Set!.
Naisbitt analysed the long-term futuristic trends of American society, both chronologically and globally, with implications on other societies. Naisbitt noted that the "most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding The trends identified were:
BECOMING an information society after having been an industrial one;
FROM technology being forced into use, to technology being pulled into use where it is appealing to people;
FROM a predominantly national economy to one in the global marketplace;
FROM short-term to long-term perspectives;
FROM centralisation to decentralisation;
FROM getting help through institutions like government to self-help;
FROM representative to participative democracy;
FROM hierarchies to networking;
FROM a northeastern bias to a southwestern one; and,
FROM seeing things as "either/or" to having more choices.
In 1991, Stan Davis and Bill Davidson wrote Vision 2020. He then wrote Future Perfect, and Blur: The Speed of Change.
In the midst of the intellectual fervour regarding the future, Malaysia's Vision 2020 was launched on Feb 28, 1991. The world is already in the second decade of the third millennium. The future which just happened, the future around the corner, and, the far future are all in the imagination and planning of man. The year 2020 is six years around the corner.
All the transformation plans, national development plans and blueprints are aimed at achieving Vision 2020. Has Vision 2020 prepared Malaysia for the uncertain future and with Vision 2020, is the future being shaped, based on the insight and real indicators of progress?
Notwithstanding the celebration of the insights of economists, a large number of mankind still refers to astrologers, mystics, fortune-tellers, psychics and Nostradamus-like priests to give them guidance to their personal futures or the prediction of the last three minutes of the world.
Economists look for past trends to predict future economic events. Historians describe history as lessons from the past for leading the future. In an age of unreason and uncertainties without historic precedent, new models of riding future waves and shaping the future have to be sought. In this respect, we need new knowledge, new mindset, modes of thinking and new visionaries.
Jerry Allan, teacher and architect, observed that "most of the big ideas of the 21st century will be combinations of single ideas from the 20th century". What are the ideas from the 20th century that we bring creatively to the 21st century? In addition, what are the significant ideas from the future that we bring back to understand our past?
iabaiw@yahoo.com
nst Friday 27 December,2013.
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